Duration Analysis of Firms – Cohort Tables and Hazard Function

Iwona Markowicz

Abstract


The aim of this study is to identify the survival process of a cohort of firms. I propose my original systematic approach to the methods for analysing the firms’ vitality (statistical and econometric study on the cohorts of firms). I obtained the research data from 59587 economic entities established in the Zachodniopomorskie voivodeship (Poland) in 2009-2011. As a result I found out that the intensity function of firms’ liquidation take a typical inverted U-shape.

 


Keywords


Duration tables, firms, hazard (intensity), modelling duration.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Audretsch, D. B., Santarelli, E., & Vivarelli, M. (1999). Start-up Size and Industrial Dynamics: Some Evidence from Italian Manufacturing. International Journal of Industrial Organization, 17, 965-983.

Bartelsmann, E., Scarpetta, S., & Schivardi, F. (2005). Comparative Analysis of Firm Demographics and Survival: Micro-Level Evidence for the OECD Countries. Industrial and Corporate Change, 14, 365-391.

Bhattacharjee, A. (2005). Models of Firm Dynamics and the Hazard Rate of Exits: Reconciling Theory and Evidence Using Hazard Regression Models. CRIEFF Discussion Papers 0502, Centre for Research into Industry, Enterprise, Finance and the Firm, University of St. Andrews.

Bednarski, T. (2014). On robust causality nonresponse testing in duration studies under the Cox model. Regular Article, Statistical Papers, Vol. 55, Issue 1, 221-231. doi: 10.1007/s00362-013-0523-0

Bieszk-Stolorz, B., & Markowicz, I. (2012). Modele regresji Coxa w analizie bezrobocia [Cox regression models in the analysis of unemployment]. CeDeWu, Warszawa.

Birch, D. L. (1981). Who Creates Jobs? The Public Interest, 65, 3-14.

Birch, D. L. (1987). Job Creation in America: How Our Smallest Companies Put the Most People to Work. Free Press, New York.

Bugamelli, M., Schivardi, F., & Zizza, R. (2009). The Euro and Firm Restructuring. Working papers 716. Banka D’Italia Eurosystema.

Carroll, G. R., & Hannan, M. T. (2000). The Demography of Corporations and Industries. Princeton University Press.

Caves, R. E. (1998). Industrial Organization and New Findings on the Turnover and Mobility of Firms. Journal of Economic Literature, 36(4), 1947-1982.

Davis, S. J., Haltiwanger, J. C., & Schuh S. (1996). Job Creation and Destruction. The MIT Press, Cambridge.

Drucker, P. F. (1992). Innowacja i przedsiębiorczość: Praktyka i zasady [Innovation and entrepreneurship: The practice and principles]. PWE, Warszawa.

Ericson, R., & Pakes, A. (1998). Empirical Implications of Alternative Models of Firm Dynamics. Journal of Economic Theory, 79(1), 1-45.

European Commission (2012, August 8), Flash Eurobarometer, 354. Report, Entrepreneurship in the EU and beyond: http://ec.europa.eu/public_opinion/flash/fl_354_en.pdf.

European Commission (2013, January 9). Entrepreneurship 2020 Action Plan. Communication from the Commission to the European Parliament, the Council, the European Economic and Social Committee and the Committee of the Regions, 795 final, Brussels: https://ec.europa.eu/transparency/regdoc/rep/1/2012/EN/1-2012-795-EN-F1-1.Pdf.

European Commission (2014, July). A Partial and Fragile Recovery. Annual Report on European SMEs 2013/2014. Final Report: http://ec.europa.eu/growth/smes/business-friendly-environment/performance-review/files/supporting-documents/2014/annual-report-smes-2014_en.pdf.

Foster, L., Haltiwanger, J., & Krizan, C. J. (2001). Aggregate Productivity Growth. Lessons from Microeconomic Evidence. In C. R. Hulten, E. R. Dean & M. J. Harper (Eds.) New Developments in Productivity Analysis (pp. 303-363). National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. University of Chicago Press.

Freeman, J., Carroll, G. R., & Hannan, M. T. (1983). The Liability of Newness: Age Dependence in Organizational Death Rates. American Sociological Review, 48, 692-710.

Geroski, P. A., Mata, J., & Portugal, P. (2007). Founding Conditions and the Survival of New Firms. DRUID Working Paper No. 07–11.

Hannan, M. T., & Freeman, J. (1989). Organizational Ecology. Harvard University Press, Cambridge.

Jovanovic, B. (1982). Selection and Evolution of Industry. Econometrica, 50(3), 649-670.

Kaniovski, S., & Peneder, M. (2008). Determinants of Firm Survival: A Duration Analysis Using the Generalized Gamma Distribution. Empirica, Springer, 35(1), 41-58. doi: 10.1007/s10663-9050-3

London, D. (1988). Survival Models and their Estimation. ACTEX Publications, Winsted, Connecticut.

López-Garcia, P., & Puente, S. (2006). Business Demography in Spain: Determinants of Firm Survival. Documentos de Trabajo No. 0608, Banco de España, Madrid.

Markowicz, I. (2012). Statystyczna analiza żywotności firm [Statistical Analysis of company lifespan]. University of Szczecin.

Markowicz, I. (2013). Hazard Function as a tool to Diagnose Business Liquidation. Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, 13(21), 21-36. doi: 10.2478/foli-2013-0019

Marques, J. P. C. (2014). Regional Dynamics of Triple Helix Spaces of Innovation, Knowledge and Consensus and the Creation of Firms in Coimbra (Portugal). International Journal of Business and Social Research, 4(1), 61-69.

Neumark, D., Wall, B., & Zhang, J. (2008). Do Small Businesses Create More Jobs? New Evidence from the National Establishment Time. Working Paper 13818, National Bureau of Economic research, Cambridge.

Nunes, A., & Morais Sarmento, E. de (2009). A Non Parametric Survival Analysis of Business Demography Dynamics in Portugal. Boletim Mensal de Economia Portuguesa, 12, 59-66.

Praag, C. M., van (2003). Business Survival and Success of Young Small Business Owners. Small Business Economics, 21(1), 1-17.

Santarelli, E. (2000). The Duration of New Firms in Banking: An Application of Cox Regression Analysis. Empirical Economics, 25, 315-325.

Scarpetta, S., Bassanini, A., Pilat, D., & Schreyer, P. (2000). Economic Growth in the OECD Area: Recent Trends at the Aggregate and Sectoral Level. OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 248, OECD Publishing, Economics Department, Paris.

Schumacher, E. F. (1981). Małe jest piękne [Small is beautiful]. PIW, Warszawa.

Schumpeter, J. A. (1960). Teoria rozwoju gospodarczego [The theory of economic development]. PWN, Warszawa.

Schrör, H. (2008). Business Demography in Europe: Employers and Job Creation. Eurostat Statistics in Focus: Industry, trade and services, No. 100.

Tsvetkova, A., Jean-Claude Thill, J-C., & Strumsky, D. (2014). Metropolitan innovation, firm size, and business survival in a high-tech industry. Small Business Economics, 43(3), 661–676. doi: 10.1007/s11187-014-9550-z

Wagner J. (1994). The Post-Entry Performance of New Small Firms in German Manufacturing Industries. Journal of Industrial Economics, 42(2), 125-131.




DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18533/ijbsr.v5i11.879

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.




Copyright (c) 2015 International Journal of Business and Social Research

 ...........................................................................................................................

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

............................................................................................................................

If you find difficulties in submitting manuscript please forward your doc file to support@thejournalofbusiness.org. Our support team will assist you in submission process and other technical matters.

In order to get notifications on inbox please add  this domain thejournalofbusiness.org in your email safe list.

International journal of business and social research (Print)
ISSN 2164-2540

International journal of business and social research (Online)
ISSN 2164-2559

[International Journal of Business and Social Research (IJBSR) previously published by MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, MD, USA. From February 2018 this journal is published by the LAR Center Press, OR, USA]