Modelling and Forecasting Cruise Tourism Demand to İzmir by Different Artificial Neural Network Architectures

Authors

  • Murat Cuhadar Egirdir Vocational School of Higher Education, Tourism&Hotel Administration Dept., Süleyman Demirel University. Turkey
  • Iclal Cogurcu Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Economy Dept, Karamanoglu Mehmet Bey University.
  • Ceyda Kukrer Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Finance Dept.,Afyonkocatepe University

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18533/ijbsr.v4i3.431

Keywords:

Cruise Tourism, Demand Forecasting, Artificial Neural Networks

Abstract

Abstract

Cruise ports emerged as an important sector for the economy of Turkey bordered on three sides by water. Forecasting cruise tourism demand ensures better planning, efficient preparation at the destination and it is the basis for elaboration of future plans. In the recent years, new techniques such as; artificial neural networks were employed for developing of the predictive models to estimate tourism demand. In this study, it is aimed to determine the forecasting method that provides the best performance when compared the forecast accuracy of Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Basis Function (RBF) and Generalized Regression neural network (GRNN) to estimate the monthly inbound cruise tourism demand to İzmir via the method giving best results. We used the total number of foreign cruise tourist arrivals as a measure of inbound cruise tourism demand and monthly cruise tourist arrivals to İzmir Cruise Port in the period of January 2005 ‐December 2013 were utilized to appropriate model. Experimental results showed that radial basis function (RBF) neural network outperforms multi-layer perceptron (MLP) and the generalised regression neural networks (GRNN) in terms of forecasting accuracy. By the means of the obtained RBF neural network model, it has been forecasted the monthly inbound cruise tourism demand to İzmir for the year 2014.

Author Biographies

  • Murat Cuhadar, Egirdir Vocational School of Higher Education, Tourism&Hotel Administration Dept., Süleyman Demirel University. Turkey

    I'm an Assitant Proffessor at Egirdir Vocational School of Higher Education,Tourism&Hotel Administration Dept., Süleyman Demirel University.
    Turkey

  • Iclal Cogurcu, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Economy Dept, Karamanoglu Mehmet Bey University.
    Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Economy Dept, Karamanoglu Mehmet Bey University.
  • Ceyda Kukrer, Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Finance Dept.,Afyonkocatepe University
    Faculty of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Finance Dept.,Afyonkocatepe University

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Published

2014-03-20

Issue

Vol. 4 No. 3 (2014): March

Section

Article

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