The interaction between property returns and the macroeconomy: Evidence from South Africa

Mabutho Sibanda, Dr. Richard Mhlanga

Abstract


A study on the interactions between property returns and the macro-economy in the UK provides contrasting results with those based on the American economy which forms the basis for this research (Brooks and Tsolacos 1999). This study therefore employs a vector autoregressive models to establish the interactions between macroeconomic and financial variables on the South African economy, a proxy for developing and transitional economies. Property assets have generally been viewed as value-growth assets due to their inflation tracking nature. Values of property-based assets may be measured through direct measures and/or equity-based measures. The two different methods of measuring the value of property-based assets available are shrouded with drawbacks although equity-based measures are theoretically preferred. This study uses direct measures to determine the impulse response functions and variance decompositions on the rate of short-term nominal rates, long-term and short-term interest differentials, inflation rate and household debt/ disposable income in South Africa.


Keywords


property returns; macroeconomic; vector autoregressive; granger causality; impulse responses

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18533/ijbsr.v3i4.39

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International journal of business and social research (Print)
ISSN 2164-2540

International journal of business and social research (Online)
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[International Journal of Business and Social Research (IJBSR) previously published by MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, MD, USA. From February 2018 this journal is published by the LAR Center Press, OR, USA]