Historical Data in the Context of Risk Prediction

Grzegorz Mentel

Abstract


An important element of a successful prediction of the future behavior of financial instruments is a thorough analysis of possible determinants that effect the final estimates of the prognostic models. In the case of VaR models, we may include here specified values of significance levels or assumed smoothing constant. Also, an important element is the number of historical observations that should be taken into account in order to estimate the scale of the risk. In the article, therefore, a study of the effectiveness of certain value-at-risk models in the context of historical data had been carried out. Thus, an attempt to assess the impact of the amount of historical data on the effectiveness of the VaR indications had been made. 


Keywords


value-at-risk; modeling;risk; prediction; historical data

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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18533/ijbsr.v4i1.364

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