Regression Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents and Population Growth in Ghana.

Abstract

Abstract

Vehicular accidents in Ghana have become one of the growing concerns to most Ghanaians in recent times. This is as a result of the tremendous negative effects of accidents on human lives, properties, and the environment as well as and the economy at large. Many researchers have come out with the causes, effects and recommendations to vehicular accidents, which include drunk driving, machine failure and over speeding just to mention a few. Yet every year the Road Safety Commission, Ghana Statistical Service and other organizations report an increase in vehicular accidents in Ghana.

The systematic yearly increase in the number of accidents therefore calls for statistical analysis of this global and of course national canker. This study attempts to show statistical evidence of the relationship between road traffic accidents and population in Ghana in order to ascertain additional information in contributing to previous researches that have emerged in dealing with this menace. Time series data on yearly road traffic accidents and population values for Ghana covering the period 1990 to 2012 was used. The results from the analysis shows three key findings: a systematic visible pattern of growth in both road traffic accidents and population over the period; evidence of statistical relationship between road traffic accidents and population in Ghana as given by the correlation coefficient (r) of 0.854, with a corresponding coefficient of determination (r-sq) of 72.9% indicating that for the period under study based on the available data, population is able to account for 72.9% of the changes in accidents in Ghana; and finally a regression model developed for the purposes of estimating and forecasting on the basis of the analysis, specifically based on test of hypothesis and model validation.