Cultural vs. Economic: Re-Visiting the Determinants of Fertility at a Sub-National Level in the U.S, 1990 - 2000

Abstract

It is widely accepted that through the past century, and especially since 1950, the world population has grown at an accelerating pace landing the current world's population at about 6.5 billion and, according to UN projections, it is expected to reach 9.1 billion by 2050 (Bongaarts 2005). However, this growth is not uniform and tends to vary both regionally and intra-regionally around the world (Bongaarts 1998). There are competing theories as to the true determinants of fertility levels and these identified patterns (Caldwell 2001). The bulk of these theories pit economic determinants versus socio-cultural determinants as the primary indicators concerning the onset of fertility decline. However, most of this work has had an international focus with very few examining sub-national trends in fertility patterns. This paper draws on the work of one study which examined sub-national trends in the U.S. in hopes of better understanding current trends in determining fertility in the U.S. (Cutright 1983). An OLS regression approach is employed allowing for the examination of the two competing theories. Findings suggest that, while both are certainly significant, the role of economic determinants.