Determinants of Agricultural Output In Ethiopia: Ardl Approach to Co-Integration

Adamu Mulu Ketema

Abstract


Agricultural output in Ethiopia plays an essential role in generating foreign exchange and feeding the largest share of the population, due this identifying determinant of agricultural output at macro level is important. This study investigated determinants of agricultural output at macro level by using time series data starting from 1980-2018.The ARDL approach to co integration is applied to investigate the long run and short-run determinants of agricultural output. The result reveals that Rainfall, Fertilizer input import, Trade openness, inflation rate  affect positively and significantly in the long run whereas Drought affect negatively and significantly. İn the short run Fertilizer input import and labor force affect positively and significantly while Rainfall affects positively and insignificant. Also besides to this, in a short run, drought affects negatively and significantly agricultural output. Therefore the study recommends government policies should focus on proper uses of resources like expenditure on agriculture should be used properly, Drought-resistant agriculture, and reduces the dependency on rainfall by adopting different technology at the macro level and micro level.


Keywords


Agricultural output, determinants, drought, ARDL, co-integration, Ethiopia.

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References


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.18533/ijbsr.v10i3.1293

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International journal of business and social research (Print)
ISSN 2164-2540

International journal of business and social research (Online)
ISSN 2164-2559

[International Journal of Business and Social Research (IJBSR) previously published by MIR Center for Socio-Economic Research, MD, USA. From February 2018 this journal is published by the LAR Center Press, OR, USA]