Intervention analysis of serious crimes in the eastern region of Ghana

Authors

  • K. F. Darkwah Department of Mathematics Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology Kumasi, Ghana
  • G. A. Okyere Department of Mathematics Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology Kumasi, Ghana
  • Agyemang Boakye Department of Mathematics Kwame Nkrumah University of Science & Technology Kumasi, Ghana

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.18533/ijbsr.v2i7.125

Keywords:

ARIMA, Serious Crime, Intervention analysis, Pre-intervention, Post-intervention.

Abstract

This research was done within the framework of intervention time series analysis to assess the nature and impact of the establishment and operations of community policing in communities in Ghana. In line with this objective, a secondary data made up of monthly serious crimes from 2000 to 2011 were obtained from Regional Criminal Investigations Department (CID), Eastern Regional Command of Ghana Police Service.

 

An autoregressive integrated moving average, (ARIMA (1,1,0)) models were constructed to analyse the pre and post intervention of serious crimes respectively. Based on the ARIMA(1,1,0) model for the pre-intervention series, a full intervention model was obtained.The intervention strategy was found to have reduced serious crime by 16 cases per month. The reduction was abrupt but temporal and statistically significant at 5% level. However, the statistically insignificant rate of decay () of 0.0369 at 5% level resulted in the temporal effect of the intervention. The overall intervention model is found to be statistically significant at 5% level.

 

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Issue

Vol. 2 No. 7 (2012): December

Section

Article

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